I wrote this for the Austin Stay at Home Dads Off Topic list a while ago (started in late October, posted Nov. 4). I thought it might be interesting to see how much of this comes to pass, so I'm posting it here in my blog for future reference.
From: Jesse Spears <jessespears@m...>
Date: Thu Nov 4, 2004 10:23 am
Subject: Re: [ASAHDSOT] Be VERY VERY scared, Part III
I started this email over a week ago, then Erin got sick and I decided
to put off finishing it till after the election. So, now that Kerry
has apparently conceded, I think I'll finish it.
This was in response to an email in a thread where I agreed with Stan
that America was sinking rapidly (in many ways), and that it might be
time to get out. I assume this cliche was in response to my short
assessment of Canada.
On Oct 22, 2004, at 9:17 AM, Austin SAHDs (Kevin) wrote:
> Just a quick cliche to keep you in check: "The grass is always
> greener..."
Yeah, I know, but let me run down an entirely plausible scenario for
you:
Backstory:
Bush is reelected (already happened).
The Republicans dominate the Senate and the House (ditto).
Bush is able to pack the Supreme court with even more Right wing judges
(8 out of 9 are older than 65).
The Republicans effectively control all 3 branches of government.
Results (in no particular order, most going on at the same time):
1. Bush and Company (hereafter referred to as BushCo) get Patriot Act
2 passed (pretty easily considering the size of their majorities in
Congress now). I'd like to believe that there are still a few
Conservative Republicans that will fight this in Congress (as opposed
to NeoCons, of which there are plenty), but I just don't see it
anymore. Various pieces of it will be challenged in the courts, and
probably overturned by some lower courts, but eventually reaffirmed in
the Supreme Court.
Dissent with BushCo is no longer legal (during this time of perpetual
"war" on terrorism). BushCo can have anyone designated as a threat
(i.e., someone that causes trouble for them by dissenting), arrested,
and locked away indefinitely. They may never be able to convict them
of anything, but that's not really the point (scaring people into
silence is).
2. BushCo continues to build up its new bases in Iraq, and starts
moving troops there from other parts of the world (part of the
redistribution effort it announced this past summer). 100K (or more)
troops are "temporarily" stationed in Iraq indefinitely.
BushCo continues pushing the "Bush Doctrine" as valid, and people
continue to believe it (at least in the US).
Iraq is used as a launching point for a series of invasions of
countries that the NeoCons don't like (or want to control). Possible
targets for next invasion: Iran, Syria, and any non-allied muslim
country with large oil (now) or natural gas (later) deposits.
[Edit 2/5/2005: I'll add Venezuala to this list now...given it's anti-business stance, and the fact that we've already tried to overthrow the current government at least once, I think it's likely to be an ongoing target for "regime change", even though the current leader was democratically elected by a sizeable majority of Venezualens).][Heck do I even need a number 3? 1 and 2 are scary enough for me]
3. Continuing to stuff agencies full of industry lobbyists and
sycophants, all semblance of enforcing the laws with respect to
protecting the air and water (EPA), food (USDA), and drugs (FDA) is
tossed out the window (this has already happened in BushCo's first term
to the extent that there's not much left to do, but I guess they can
force out some more long time staffers that have become too frustrated
to continue trying to do their job).
Example: BushCo finally admitted that Climate Change is real (after 4
years of suppressing data from its own agencies and referring to
Climate Change as junk science), and that we (humans) have been the
primary cause of it over the past 20-30 years. But they've also
refused to do anything about it (or even discuss things we could do
about it). The EPA tried to include this information in reports for
over 3 years before it finally got published (but not by the EPA,
IIRC).
4. Deficit spending continues it increase (or maybe we'll get lucky
and it will level off at the current record highs in the $400 Billion
range). The Debt continues to grow (we're already past 7 Trillion, and
it's forecast to hit 10 Trillion before BushCo2 is over, even if they
don't do any more damage in the next 4 years).
Here's a report (released today) about this rapidly growing problem:
http://makeashorterlink.com/?R131341B95. The Economy continues to sputter.
5A. Jobs will continue to be permanently lost as long the tax
loopholes making it BENEFICIAL to do so (i.e., outsourcing continues at
break neck speed).**
5B. The trade deficit continues to grow.
5C. Healthcare costs continue to rise (ours have effectively doubled
in the past 3 years, not counting the increase caused by the baby,
which brings it to triple what it was 3 years ago).
5D. Wages continue to stagnate (other than switching jobs, no one I've
talked to has had a raise in the past 2 years).
5E. The rich keep getting richer, and the rest of us keep getting
poorer.
5F. Gasoline prices continue to rise. According to BushCo we just
need to drill more holes, but that plan won't help (the US peaked in
Production about 1970, and discovery way before that). We use about
26% of the worlds Oil production, with about 5-6% of the population
(and 3% of the Oil reserves). Nothing will help except using less oil
(conservation, increased fuel MPG requirements), but that's just crazy
talk to the oil-industry heavies in BushCo.
Our economy is based on energy. Cheap Energy = strong economy.
Expensive Energy = weak economy. Invading Iraq had the opposite effect
of what was predicted (BushCo said it would bring energy prices down
because of the extra supply, but instead the supply has gone down and
terrorism has gone up, oil prices are high, and the stock market will
most likely continue to decline as long as oil prices go up).***
Those are my biggest concerns.
Also note, I'm not saying that I think Kerry would have fixed all of
these problems, but at least he had a plan to work on most of them.
BushCo doesn't see any problems to fix.
I saw this quote today in a CNN report:
"""Despite Bush's appeal to Kerry supporters, Cheney said the popular
vote victory gave Bush a mandate and the Bush White House would
continue pushing for the Republicans' "clear agenda.""""
So, ignoring the fact that half the electorate disagrees with their
agenda, and their approval rating has been below 50% for most of the
last 6 months, they will continue to do whatever the hell they feel
like because they barely eked out a victory.
So, given that scary future if we stay in the USA, Canada is looking
very nice. Especially if I don't find a job by the end of the year (or
earlier, if Joyce's fears that her job is being eliminated come true).
Can you honestly tell me that if Patriot Act 2 passes and the US
"preemptively" invades Iran and Syria (and maybe a few more countries)
that you still believe this country is worth supporting? How about the
fact that your children (and grand children, and so on) will be living
in a country where it's no longer safe to breathe unfiltered air (it
isn't right now for the vast majority of Americans), or eat the fish
(too polluted with Mercury if they were caught or raised in America, or
along it's shores), or drink the water (you don't even want to know
what's in that "safe" tap water you're drinking).
So, no, I don't think Canada is perfect. But, ideologically, morally,
and financially, it'll be hard to stomach living in the US for much
longer if things continue going the way they have the last 4 years.
Jesse / "Oh, Canada, you don't suck quite as much"* / Spears
*sung to the tune of "Oh, Canada"
** Please don't tell me that we just need to re-educate people...403K
of those permanently lost jobs were hi-tech workers, like me, and half
of those jobs were lost AFTER the recession "ended". I've already got
a BSEE, coursework for an MSEE and 12 years experience as a C++
programmer, and I can't find a job in Austin. What should I take
courses in? Burger flipping? Latte Making?
*** Or, you can take the slightly more radical view: We've already
hit Hubbert's Peak, we're teetering on the top right now, and it will
never get better from here on out. The Age of Cheap Oil is over.
Here's one site working on calling attention to this:
http://www.odac-info.org/Or, here's a scary site you can look at:
http://www.dieoff.com/(it's a bit old and out of date, and deals with over-population as well
as Peak Oil, but it's still somewhat relevant)
Note: I don't think we're going to run out of oil anytime soon. We're
running out of cheap, easy to refine oil (that's the "peak" I think
we've already hit). There are other sources of oil available, but it's
all more expensive to produce than what we've been using up these past
100 years, or it's very "heavy" which means that it's really expensive
to make anything useful out of it (i.e., the Tar Sands in Canada are a
huge source of "oil", but they aren't even worth processing until the
price of oil goes high and stays there).
And, of course, it just means more CO2 gets pumped into the atmosphere,
making Climate Change worse (which means Canada will keep getting
warmer ;).